Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 9.746033 11.462174 13.347065 15.564862 18.096555 20.889908 24.198474
2025-01-19 7.205913 9.435063 12.110663 15.533837 19.769611 24.809593 31.227887
2025-01-26 5.977219 8.547789 11.863263 16.396122 22.366617 29.889535 40.001240
2025-02-02 5.060856 7.814948 11.593865 17.058201 24.638548 34.647110 48.696952
2025-02-09 4.414148 7.296853 11.473018 17.811440 27.000980 39.619941 57.984092
2025-02-16 3.713501 6.556293 10.894263 17.785924 28.196203 43.016673 65.303297
2025-02-23 3.044324 5.736038 10.057649 17.232681 28.503276 45.103332 70.841391
2025-03-02 2.484531 4.990357 9.217569 16.539355 28.475279 46.625382 75.579199
2025-03-09 2.151854 4.577979 8.855190 16.544818 29.491893 49.728760 82.806871
2025-03-16 1.883836 4.235469 8.559119 16.609863 30.579394 52.976885 90.413772
2025-03-23 1.643760 3.903268 8.232097 16.571569 31.466892 55.934641 97.706133
2025-03-30 1.374775 3.462162 7.640593 15.984475 31.344858 57.218129 102.361193
2025-04-06 1.203122 3.202744 7.373168 15.982288 32.276069 60.355596 110.321486
2025-04-13 1.051688 2.960024 7.105945 15.949061 33.144397 63.440687 118.382556
2025-04-20 0.999051 2.940213 7.296524 16.830798 35.765800 69.705149 132.160885
2025-04-27 0.933735 2.876769 7.383784 17.507916 38.044990 75.492149 145.411840
2025-05-04 0.880863 2.835085 7.512158 18.278298 40.553915 81.822351 159.918957
2025-05-11 0.780151 2.645366 7.277935 18.252183 41.488052 85.336696 169.612630
2025-05-18 0.660990 2.377292 6.820465 17.686314 41.283436 86.720116 175.532548
2025-05-25 0.551874 2.111406 6.326414 16.977094 40.712682 87.358208 180.095004
2025-06-01 0.491769 1.981312 6.153425 16.982682 41.629817 90.873593 190.124798
2025-06-08 0.441289 1.870205 6.013456 17.049221 42.676742 94.689416 200.887548
2025-06-15 0.392496 1.752578 5.838366 17.010048 43.484491 98.068359 210.966514